Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.236834 3.015846 4.103852 5.784289 8.409838e+00 12.532154 1.988958e+01
2025-04-13 1.291158 1.962801 3.064075 5.128384 9.236039e+00 17.946869 4.115698e+01
2025-04-20 0.898584 1.510875 2.665200 5.257450 1.185516e+01 31.571760 1.220180e+02
2025-04-27 0.685595 1.262905 2.503206 5.840701 1.696709e+01 68.133526 6.336692e+02
2025-05-04 0.543012 1.085031 2.398379 6.620282 2.548798e+01 176.802990 9.980978e+03
2025-05-11 0.423972 0.903891 2.187374 7.005046 3.556774e+01 479.675071 1.158752e+07
2025-05-18 0.321687 0.717839 1.855369 6.656831 4.263831e+01 1157.531541 NaN
2025-05-25 0.244546 0.564362 1.532978 6.012644 4.687793e+01 2672.340137 NaN
2025-06-01 0.204066 0.492375 1.430576 6.362298 6.710365e+01 18931.570724 NaN
2025-06-08 0.172106 0.431789 1.332879 6.671874 9.647205e+01 621851.807240 NaN
2025-06-15 0.149178 0.389113 1.277776 7.256478 1.529807e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.129912 0.350595 1.216856 7.776589 2.443264e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.108167 0.298186 1.072034 7.404533 3.115944e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.089618 0.250649 0.923216 6.735066 3.540249e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.078991 0.227009 0.875590 7.109546 6.060131e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.072014 0.213924 0.873801 8.152079 1.469520e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.066317 0.203573 0.881250 9.530382 4.763593e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.059930 0.188381 0.851112 10.311734 1.454569e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.052639 0.167331 0.771665 9.887965 2.646902e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.045800 0.146303 0.680759 8.941992 3.301776e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.042053 0.136971 0.660678 9.607176 1.939735e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.038657 0.128112 0.638355 10.206210 3.203265e+06 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.036031 0.121786 0.630003 11.278829 NaN NaN NaN